Security trends to watch in 2009

1. Explosion of malware variants:
Recent attacks include new strains of malware which consist of millions of distinct threats that propagate as a single, core piece of malware. This creates an unlimited number of unique malware instances. The sensor data obtained via the Symantec Global Intelligence Network also shows we have reached an inflection point. There are now more malicious programs created than legitimate programs. These new and emerging threats have given rise to the need for new, complementary detection methods such as reputation-based security approaches.

2. Advanced web threats:
As the number of available web services increases and as browsers continue to converge on a uniform interpretation standard for scripting languages, Symantec expects the number of new web-based threats to continue to increase.

3. Economic crisis:
The global economic crisis will be the basis of many new attacks. This will include phishing attacks (e.g. whose fictitious premise might surround the closing of a given bank). Similarly, attacks may also exploit other types of fraudulent activity such as around economic issues including emails that promise the ability to easily get a mortgage or refinance. Expect to see an increase in scams that prey on people who have had homes foreclosed, an increase in work from home scams targeting the unemployed, and an increase in spam that mimics job sites.

4. Social networks:
In 2008, we've noticed an uptick in activity in threats related to social networking sites. These threats have involved phishing for username accounts and/or using social context as a way to increase the "success rate" of an online threat. Spammers in select EMEA regions have been heavily promoting social networking sites. One instance reached more than two million Symantec customers. These threats will become increasingly important for enterprise IT organisations since the new entering workforce often accesses these tools using corporate resources.

5. Spam levels will rise:
Symantec saw a 65 percent drop in spam between the 24 hours prior to the McColo shutdown and 24 hours after. We expect to see spam levels rise back to approximately 75 to 80 percent. Command-and-control systems will be re-established and, more importantly, this event may drive spammers toward the continued use of peer-to-peer botnets, which are generally more resilient. In this turbulent economic climate there may be other hosting companies around the world who might be willing to facilitate this sort of spam activity.

6. Virtual machine security:
Virtualisation technology will be incorporated into security solutions to provide an environment isolated and protected from the chaos of a general purpose operating system environment. This technology will provide a safe environment for sensitive transactions such as banking and protect critical infrastructure such as the security components that protect the general purpose operating environment.